Essay on International Relations in East Asia: Japan-China Relations
Will there be second Sino-Japanese war in Northeast Asia?
The war is unlikely to occur in a long-run perspective. In light of the emerging globalization, China and Japan will rather shift toward cooperation than open confrontation. The current economic cooperation reveals ways for further integration and cooperation between two countries. In fact, China and Japan may follow the lead of European countries, which used to be the major rivals, such as France and Germany or Germany and the UK.
What will be the cause of war?
The war between China and Japan can occur because of disputes over Senkaku Islands or the wider support of Taiwan by Japan. However, the conflict over Senkaku Islands and Taiwan is unlikely to transform into the open military conflict. On the other hand, Senkaku Islands and Taiwan may become formal causes of the war. In addition, there may be informal causes, such as the rise of Japanese militarism, enhancement of the economic power of China in Asia and the world, and possible retrieval of the US as the third power that appeases the region.
What will be the most important factors for cooperation?
The most important factors for cooperation will be the economic cooperation and integration; recognition of existing borders and retaining of the status quo of borders; the presence of the US in the region and its foreign policies in the region; the situation in North Korea and Chinese policies in relation to North Korea. The economic cooperation may become the major driver for the establishment of peaceful and pragmatic international relations between China and Japan. The recognition of existing borders will prevent possible conflicts between Japan and China for disputable territories. The US can remain the power, whose position will be determinant to prevent the war. North Korea can destabilize the entire region.
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