Essay on Success and Failure of Intelligence
Historically, intelligence played an important part in military operations and wars. However, intelligence operations may have not only positive but also negative effects on military operations as well as the balance of power between opposing parties. At this point, it is possible to refer to the experience of the US and allies’ intelligence during World War II, when the intelligence suffered both successes and failures. In this regard, it is possible to refer to the case of the failure of the US intelligence to foresee the attack of the Japanese on Pearl Harbor and the success of the allies’ intelligence in uncovering the way to crack Enigma, German encryption system used in the communication of Germans. These two cases reveal the full extent to which the intelligence operations may be influential and affect outcomes of large scale military conflicts. On the other hand, the revelation of the failure of the US intelligence in Pearl Harbor shows the importance of the intelligence as the agency that can foresee and prevent large scale military operations and failures of the national defense system. Therefore, successes and failures of the intelligence show that the intelligence plays an important part in military operations, wars as well as socio-political development of nations and the effective performance of intelligence can help nations to take a stronger position in the competitive struggle between nations and international relations.
The failure of the US intelligence in Pearl Harbor is a well-known fact as well as the cracking of Enigma is a renowned success of the allies’ intelligence. However, from the scientific point of view, the failure or success of the intelligence should be grounded on the revelation of facts and evidence that prove that the particular intelligence operation. In this regard, to determine whether the particular intelligence operation was a success or failure, it is possible to elaborate criteria which mark the success of the intelligence operation. Criteria of the successful intelligence operation include several key elements (Cook, 2006). First, the intelligence operation is successful, if it has caused harms to the enemy. In fact, the ultimate goal of the intelligence operation is obtaining the target information or completion of the target action successfully that will directly or indirectly harm the enemy. For instance, even if the intelligence operation does not lead to the destruction of the enemy infrastructure, but helps to reveal certain information about the enemy’s infrastructure, then the intelligence will weaken the position of the enemy because the party conducting the military operation will know weak points in the defense line of the enemy.
Second, the intelligence operation is successful, if it was conducted safely for agents and other stakeholders involved in the operation. The safety of agents is very important because, first, the intelligence agency has to invest funds into training of its agents that means that the loss of agents is costly. Second, the loss of agents weakens the position of the intelligence that naturally cannot be the marker of success of the military operation. Therefore, the safety of agents is definitely the evidence of the success of the intelligence operation.
Third, the intelligence operation is successful, if it allows saving life of soldiers and civilians of the party that conducts the intelligence operation or those of its allies. One of the primary goals of any intelligence operation is the safety of soldiers and civilians. The protection of soldiers and civilians and enhancement of their security proves that the intelligence operation is successful.
Fourth, the intelligence operation is successful, if it contributes to saving facilities, infrastructure, military equipment and other items essential for the successful military operations of the party conducting the intelligence operation. The protection of facilities and infrastructure is another priority of intelligence operations, especially, if they are conducted during the wartime. If intelligence operations secure the infrastructure and facilities of the party that conducts the intelligence operation then such intelligence operation is definitely successful.
Fifth, the intelligence operation is successful, if its outcomes have a generally positive effect on the particular military conflict and balance of powers of parties involved in the war. Intelligence operations conducted during the wartime should have the long-lasting positive effects and bring positive impact on the position of the military of the party conducting the intelligence. In fact, truly successful intelligence operations may have the determinant effect on the development of military conflicts and large scale wars.
Sixth, the successful intelligence operation remains unnoticed for the enemy until harmful effects of the operation become obvious or even after the end of the military conflict. The intelligence traditionally operates secretly. Therefore, if operations of the intelligence agency are uncovered, then they failed, while, on the contrary, if the enemy and public fails to notice the intelligence operation, then such operation is successful.
The major success of the intelligence during World War II was cracking Enigma, German cryptographic system, which they used for radio and data transmission during the war. The operation was conducted by international intelligence forces, including Polish, French, American and British professionals. They coordinated their actions and the intelligence agencies of the allies collaborated to crack Enigma. At this point, it is worth mentioning the fact that the Enigma machine based its cipher capabilities on a series of wired rotor wheels and a plugboard. Through a web of internal wiring, each of the 26 input contacts on the rotor were connected to a different output contact. The wiring connections of one rotor differed from the connections on any other rotor (Cornwell, 2008). Additionally, each rotor had a moveable placement notch found on an outer ring. The notch forced the rotor to its left to step one place forward. This notch could be moved to a different point on the rotor by rotating the outer ring. The Germans followed a daily list, known as a key list, to indicate where the notch should be placed each day (Cornwell, 2008). Theoretically, Enigma was considered to be extremely difficult to crack. Researchers (Cornwell, 2008) estimate that the Germans believed the encryption generated by the machine to be unbreakable. With a theoretical number of ciphering possibilities of 3 X 10114, their belief was not unjustified.
Cracking Enigma was the results of the Polish breakthrough combined with a German traitor provided by the French that resulted in the major success against Enigma, since the British and Americans became able to expand their findings into breaking Enigma as well as even more resilient German Navy encryption. In this regard, it is worth mentioning the fact that the Navy played the key part in the national security of the UK because the breakthrough of the Navy defense line would lead to the opening the way for landing the German army in the UK.
The operation was conducted safely and did not cause casualties among the allies involved in the operation. In fact, all participants of the operations and agents remained safe and were not vulnerable to any prosecution or attacks from the part of Germans. They had managed to complete the intelligence operation successfully without being uncovered by the enemy. This is why the operation conducted by the allies’ intelligence to crack Enigma was successful. At the same time, it is important to place emphasis on the fact that the intelligence operation on cracking Enigma involved the large scale cooperation of agents and intelligence agencies internationally. The intelligence operation involved professionals from Poland, France, the UK and the US and even a German traitor. Therefore, the operation involved a large number of people that apparently increased the risk of its failure because the more there are people involved in the intelligence operation the higher is the risk of the failure of the operation. In case of the intelligence operation on cracking Enigma all professionals working on the operation had managed to survive and remained undiscovered by the enemy. This is why this operation was apparently successful.
Furthermore, the allies’ armies and infrastructure remained unharmed and, more important, the allies armies have got better opportunities to track the movement and actions of the enemy securing its position through deciphering the communication between Germans, who used Enigma or its navy encryption. In such a way, the German military faced the problem of information breaches since the allies had got an opportunity to decipher the communication of Germans. As a result, they had got access to the secret information and their interceptions could help them to understand what Germans planned to do and reveal German strategy and key military operations (Stinnett, 2009). In fact, the cracking of Enigma gave the allies the clue to the communication channels of Germans that apparently weakened German army and enhanced the position of the allies in the war.
The cracking of Enigma cause substantial harms to Germans, who became vulnerable to unexpected actions and attacks of the allies, who deciphered German communication due to the successful intelligence operation of cracking Enigma. Germans could not be absolutely safe anymore because the allies could foresee their operations and actions due to the information which they intercepted from the communication between Germans. In such a situation, Germans could not conduct their operations successfully and the risk of their failure increased because they could not encrypt their communication effectively, while their enemy, i.e. the allies, could elaborate effective counter strategies being aware of actions and plans of Germans.
Essay on Success and Failure of Intelligence part 2
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